Overview
- Seasonal guidance from NOAA’s CFS and ECMWF points to a warmer-than-average winter across much of Western and Central Europe.
- Snowfall odds are forecast below normal in these regions, with slightly elevated probabilities mainly in Scandinavia and the Baltics.
- Meteorological drivers—including a potentially unstable polar vortex, a negative QBO and a developing La Niña—could still trigger regional cold snaps.
- Research highlights a climate paradox in which Arctic warming can raise the risk of rare, intense outbreaks even as a positive NAO, the solar maximum and long‑term warming curb prolonged, continent‑wide freezes.
- Preparedness assessments warn that a sustained cold wave would strain power grids, hamper wind and solar output, surge gas demand and expose gaps in municipal contingency planning.