Overview
- Representatives of several European intelligence services have warned that Russia is stepping up plots to intimidate or kill executives and senior staff at defence and drone-supply companies, with the GRU widely blamed for directing these campaigns.
- NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, presented a public 'theory of victory' at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday and warned the alliance would defeat any attack to strengthen deterrence.
- Intelligence officials say the Kremlin is using deniable tactics such as drones, arson, sabotage, organised-crime networks and decentralised cells to create plausible deniability and a psychological effect without needing to carry out every planned hit.
- Some plots have reportedly been uncovered or stopped and Europe has already seen hits linked to the pattern, including the failed explosive drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport in August and recent arson and explosions at defence-related plants.
- EU and national leaders are pressing tougher steps that include formally targeting the GRU, restricting Russian diplomatic movement and visas, and debating the legal and political use of immobilised Russian assets to finance Ukraine’s defence.