Overview
- EU–U.S. friction remains acute as Brussels enforces digital rules with fines on American tech firms and Washington threatens tariffs, sanctions and visa denials targeting European officials.
- Higher military outlays are expected to squeeze welfare budgets, and the draft 2028–2034 EU financial framework is already provoking clashes between member states and farmer protests.
- The bloc faces a large trade gap with China and continued Chinese support for Russia, with China’s 2025 trade surplus estimated near $1 trillion, pointing to rising exports into Europe.
- Stagnant growth persists, and commentators argue the EU must halt deindustrialisation, close its technology gap with the U.S. and China, and target roughly 3% annual expansion.
- A crowded 2026 political year—including national and regional votes, Cyprus and Ireland holding the rotating EU presidencies, and AfD’s invitation to the Munich Security Conference—will test coalition stability and public trust.