Overview
- European governments are increasing defense spending and capabilities in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine as Washington presses Europe to shoulder more of its own security.
- Finland and Sweden opted to enter NATO in 2023 and 2024, reflecting a judgment that membership offers greater safety than neutrality.
- Russian gray‑zone activity, including suspected Baltic Sea cable interference and drone incursions near NATO airspace, is viewed as resolve‑testing rather than a bid for direct conflict.
- Estonia’s spy chief, Kaupo Rosin, says Russia still respects NATO and argues that continued investment by Estonia, the EU, and NATO is essential to maintain that respect.
- Despite on‑paper advantages, Russia has not forced a decisive victory in Ukraine, and European officials contend that sustained rearmament could outpace Moscow over time.