Overview

• The euro has risen by more than 13% against the dollar this year and currently stands near $1.17 per euro, its highest level since 2001.
• ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos warned that any exchange rate above $1.20 per euro would be problematic, effectively drawing a red line for further gains.
• Foreign-exchange interventions remain off the table under G20 commitments, leaving adjustments to interest rates as the ECB’s primary tool for moderating the euro’s advance.
• President Trump’s push for a weaker dollar through tariff threats and critiques of Federal Reserve independence has driven the euro’s rally more than European monetary policy.
• Investors are watching for new ECB policy signals and further White House decisions that could influence the euro-dollar outlook.