Overview
- Eurasia Group now assesses a U.S. military action in Venezuela this month as plausible, with timing likely before Christmas.
- Its scenarios range from limited airstrikes on drug-linked facilities to attacks on Venezuelan military posts and surgical strikes on key chavista figures.
- President Trump told Politico he would not rule out sending troops and said Nicolás Maduro's days are numbered.
- Reporting describes U.S. planning that emphasizes targeted strikes and internal intelligence operations intended to avoid deploying ground forces.
- Congressional scrutiny and war-crime allegations tied to recent Caribbean boat bombings complicate any authorization, and Eurasia puts the chance of Maduro's fall at roughly 40% while judging removal unlikely without U.S. troops on the ground.