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Eurasia Group Warns of 'U.S. Political Revolution' as Top Risk for 2026

The report casts 2026 as a tipping point for the postwar order.

Overview

  • Eurasia Group released its annual Top Risks report on Jan. 5, authored by Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan for policymakers and investors.
  • Ian Bremmer argues the United States is unwinding its own global order, with President Trump positioned to reshape domestic institutions and foreign policy.
  • The authors describe the AI boom as the greatest combined opportunity and danger, citing a lack of governance, alignment, and coordination.
  • The report warns that U.S. attacks on clean energy could erode America’s AI edge and enhance China’s advantage in post‑carbon technologies.
  • The Top 10 risks also flag Europe under siege, a potential RussiaNATO hybrid second front, state capitalism with American characteristics, China’s deflation trap, strains on the USMCA, vulnerabilities in the electric stack, AI harms to users, and the weaponization of water.