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Eurasia Group Names U.S. Political Revolution Top Global Risk for 2026

The firm cites weakened guardrails that could upend global policy predictability.

Overview

  • Ian Bremmer says the United States is unwinding its own postwar order, with President Trump driving a system-level transformation of American politics and global role.
  • The report argues Trump's project seeks to weaponize institutions and erode checks on executive power, with Bremmer noting domestic constraints have so far proved weaker than expected.
  • Eurasia Group characterizes the AI boom as both unprecedented opportunity and danger, warning that governance, alignment, and coordination remain largely absent.
  • Beyond the U.S. upheaval, the Top 10 flags Europe under siege, an 'electric stack' divergence favoring China, U.S. state capitalism, China’s deflation trap, a zombie USMCA, and the weaponization of water.
  • The assessment follows a dramatic shift in U.S. posture in the Western Hemisphere, with Time describing Nicolás Maduro’s ouster and trial in the United States as a headline win that leaves Venezuela’s transition uncertain.