Overview
- EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels this week to review Commission options to cover Ukraine’s 2026–2027 needs, estimated at €130–140 billion.
- The preferred plan would replace frozen Russian cash at Euroclear with European Commission zero‑coupon bonds and transfer the cash to Ukraine, with repayment only if Russia later pays reparations.
- Belgium, which hosts roughly €180 billion of the assets, is withholding consent while seeking legally binding, shared guarantees to avoid bearing liability if courts order repayment.
- With consensus uncertain and Slovakia signaling resistance, officials are preparing fallbacks such as EU‑level borrowing, joint state or bilateral loans, and limited use of the SAFE defense procurement tool, while potential Norwegian guarantees are viewed as unlikely.
- Officials warn that even a mid‑December political deal may not deliver funds before an expected April 2026 shortfall and could affect the IMF’s readiness to extend further support.