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EU Weighs Brake Clause That Could Soften 2040 Climate Goal Ahead of COP30

A decision on Nov. 4 will set the bloc’s COP30 position as weakened forest carbon sinks complicate a 90% emissions‑cut plan.

Overview

  • The latest draft compromise would allow an adjustment to the 2040 intermediate target if forests and other land uses absorb less CO2 than expected.
  • The European Commission backs a 90% emissions cut by 2040, and ministers are debating how much of that could be met by buying foreign carbon credits after an initial 3% outsourcing idea failed to win enough support.
  • Negotiators are also considering biennial reviews and potential clauses to revise the target downward if sub‑targets or economic conditions undermine delivery.
  • Europe’s land sector has lost nearly one‑third of its CO2‑absorption capacity over the past decade, driven by wildfires and unsustainable forest management.
  • Denmark, which drafted the text, says a deal is within reach, with at least 15 of 27 EU countries needed for approval and senior Commission officials urging against weakening the goal.