Overview
- The European Commission says Spain is at risk of non‑compliance in 2026 because projected net primary expenditure would outpace the 3.5% benchmark.
- Brussels estimates the deviation is below 0.3% of GDP for 2026 and under 0.6% on a cumulative basis, placing it inside the technical margin.
- The Commission urges the government to adopt the necessary measures in its national budget process to bring policy into line with the fiscal framework.
- Spain has not submitted a draft budget, so the assessment relies on available data and recent EU macroeconomic forecasts; Belgium only just reached a multi‑year budget deal.
- Separately, the Commission signals Spain can exit enhanced post‑program surveillance after repaying about 75% of its bank‑rescue loan this year, though the high debt ratio still limits fiscal space.