Overview
- Italy’s GDP is now forecast to grow 0.4% in 2025, then 0.8% in both 2026 and 2027, leaving the country near the bottom of the EU growth table.
- The Commission projects the deficit at 3.0% of GDP in 2025, 2.8% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, broadly mirroring the government’s Documento programmatico di bilancio.
- Brussels will decide on closing the excessive‑deficit procedure in spring 2026 after Eurostat’s April data, with a working 2.98% estimate testing the ‘below 3%’ rule and potentially unlocking temporary defense‑spending leeway.
- Italy’s debt ratio is seen around 137% of GDP in 2027, keeping it among only four EU members above 100% and adding pressure from rising interest costs.
- The outlook relies on PNRR‑financed public investment and modest household consumption, while the Commission flags downside risks from higher global trade barriers and possible financial‑market corrections.