Overview
- On the eve of the Dec. 18–19 summit, EU leaders remain divided between a reparations-style loan backed by roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets and a fallback plan of joint EU borrowing.
- Belgium, where about €185 billion of the assets sit at Euroclear, is holding out for uncapped guarantees and the termination of investment treaties with Russia, with its EU ambassador warning talks are “going backward.”
- Germany, Nordic and several Eastern countries argue the assets-based loan is the only workable route, while Italy pushes joint EU debt and Bulgaria, Malta, Hungary and Slovakia oppose using the Russian reserves.
- Diplomats are exploring a workaround that could let 25 countries participate in joint borrowing without Hungary and Slovakia, though a senior EU official insists the assets-based loan remains on the table despite Viktor Orbán’s claims.
- External crosswinds complicate the talks, with reports of U.S. pressure against tapping the assets and separate reports of Russian intelligence intimidation targeting Belgian officials and Euroclear executives.