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EU Outlines ETS2 Price Safeguards as Leaders Weigh 2040 Climate Goal

The Commission seeks to stabilize costs to protect households and keep its climate stance intact for the Brazil summit.

Overview

  • Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra detailed a ‘top‑up’ trigger that doubles auction volumes if the ETS2 price tops €45 per tonne, alongside a stronger market stability reserve and a plan to keep unused allowances in reserve through 2030, with formal amendments due in the coming weeks.
  • Brussels is preparing to frontload future ETS2 revenues into the new Climate Social Fund, with the European Investment Bank discussed as a vehicle to pre‑finance national projects starting next year.
  • Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and Cyprus asked Ursula von der Leyen to postpone the 2027 start of ETS2 to 2030, citing energy poverty, limited public‑transport options and affordability risks.
  • EU environment ministers failed to agree on interim targets for 2035 and 2040, sending the decision to this week’s leaders’ summit, as Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz slowed consensus while Environment Minister Carsten Schneider backed the 90% 2040 cut.
  • More than 2,000 scientists urged the EU to keep a 90% reduction target for 2040, as analyses project ETS2 prices averaging about €99/t in 2027–2030 and consumer groups warn fuel costs could rise by up to roughly €0.19 per liter depending on market conditions.