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EU Fails to Seal 2040 Climate Deal as Split Over Flexibilities Deepens

With COP30 days away, the Danish presidency is reworking a softer package to bridge divisions.

Overview

  • An extraordinary Environment Council ended without agreement after marathon talks, leaving the legal adoption of the 90% emissions‑cut target for 2040 unresolved.
  • The central dispute concerns international carbon credits: the Commission proposed a 3% share from 2036, Spain and Germany back that line, Italy and France want 5% from 2031, and Poland seeks 10% from 2031.
  • A revised Danish compromise under preparation features a biennial review of the framework and an emergency brake if natural carbon removals underperform.
  • To win support, negotiators are weighing a one‑year delay of ETS2 for transport and buildings to 2028, a move that faces pushback from climate‑ambitious countries.
  • Italy leads a group pushing broader flexibilities and technology‑neutral tools such as sustainable biofuels and carbon capture, while others warn against weakening predictability as the EU readies its 2035 NDC for COP30.