Overview
- Italy’s GDP is now forecast to grow 0.4% in 2025 and 0.8% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the spring projections.
- The budget deficit is projected at 3.0% of GDP in 2025, 2.8% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, in close alignment with the government’s DPB.
- The Commission says any move to close the Excessive Deficit Procedure depends on Eurostat-verified 2025 figures in April and will be assessed in the spring 2026 package.
- Public debt is seen at 136.4% of GDP in 2025 and near 138% through 2027, leaving Italy among just four EU countries above 100% by 2027.
- Brussels notes growth is supported by consumption and Recovery Plan investment, with Italian inflation seen at 1.7% in 2025 and global trade barriers and potential market corrections flagged as risks.