Overview

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Scotland on July 26 for summit talks with President Trump aimed at locking in a transatlantic trade accord before the looming deadline.
• The draft framework mirrors the recent U.S.-Japan deal by proposing a 15% levy on most EU goods, with potential quotas or exemptions for steel, aluminum and select medical and aviation products.
• President Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU steel, aluminum and autos from August 1, prompting EU member states to approve retaliatory duties on roughly $109 billion of U.S. exports if no settlement is reached.
• Final adoption of any agreement rests on Trump’s personal endorsement and subsequent ratification by EU member governments and the European Parliament under the bloc’s complex committee-based process.
• Negotiators caution that Trump’s penchant for last-minute revisions and the EU’s need for collective approval leave the deal’s outcome uncertain despite the president’s “good 50-50 chance” assessment.