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EU Climate Report Says 1.5°C Limit Will Be Breached This Decade, Ten Years Early

Copernicus links the earlier overshoot to greenhouse‑gas buildup paired with exceptionally warm oceans.

Overview

  • New ECMWF/Copernicus data confirm 2023–2025 as the first three‑year period averaging more than 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline.
  • The agencies project sustained exceedance of the Paris 1.5°C threshold before 2030, advancing earlier expectations by roughly a decade.
  • Global mean temperature in 2025 reached about 14.97°C, slightly below the 2024 record year influenced by El Niño and near 2023 levels.
  • Antarctica logged its warmest year on record and the Arctic its second warmest, with additional records in the North Atlantic, parts of the Pacific, and regions of Europe and Central Asia.
  • Scientists cite long‑term greenhouse‑gas accumulation and extra‑polar ocean temperatures of 20.73°C, while officials note the warmest decade on record and urge planning for overshoot and its societal impacts.