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EU Climate Data Put 2025 On Track as Second- or Third-Hottest Year

EU analysts say the 2023–2025 global average is poised to exceed 1.5°C, reflecting record emissions alongside faltering fossil-fuel phase‑out commitments.

Overview

  • Copernicus reports January–November 2025 temperatures averaged about 1.48°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, making it virtually certain the year will rank second or third, likely tied with 2023 and behind 2024.
  • November 2025 was the third-warmest November on record at roughly 1.54°C above pre‑industrial levels, with notable warmth over northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean.
  • C3S says the 2023–2025 three‑year mean is on track to exceed 1.5°C for the first time, even as the Paris target is defined over multi‑decade periods rather than a single year.
  • Scientists note 2025 warmth persisted during La Niña conditions, while fossil‑fuel emissions rose to a new high this year and COP30 closed without stronger phase‑out pledges.
  • Extreme weather linked to human‑driven warming intensified impacts worldwide, including deadly storms and floods across South and Southeast Asia and a Jamaica hurricane with rainfall boosted by about 16% in attribution studies.