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EU Banks Show Resilience in 2025 Stress Test Under Trade-War Shock

Projected €547 billion losses under a 6.3 percent contraction scenario leave core equity ratios above regulatory minima

A commuter train passes by the skyline with its financial district ahead of the European Central Bank?s (ECB)  governing council meeting later this week in Frankfurt, Germany, October 25, 2021.  REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
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Overview

  • The EBA tested 64 banks, including 51 euro-zone lenders, under a severe macroeconomic scenario shaped by rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
  • The adverse scenario drives a 6.3 percent contraction in EU output through 2027 and banks incur combined losses of €547 billion, up from €496 billion in 2023.
  • No institution breaches its core equity requirement and only one fails the leverage ratio, reflecting strengthened buffers since the 2008 crisis.
  • Aggregate common equity Tier 1 ratios would fall to 12.1 percent by 2027 from 15.8 percent under the transitional CRR3 framework.
  • Supervisors will apply dividend and bonus restrictions to 17 banks as part of their Pillar 2 capital review.