Overview
- The Commission’s projections broadly mirror Italy’s budget plan, with Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis noting that any proposal to abrogate the excessive‑deficit procedure would be considered in the spring 2026 surveillance package if the 2025 shortfall is confirmed below 3%.
- Brussels highlights technical work on what qualifies as “below 3%” under the new rules, including how Eurostat handles rounding when the outturn is very close to the threshold.
- Public debt is forecast at 136.4% of GDP in 2025, 137.9% in 2026 and 137.2% in 2027, leaving Italy among only four EU countries still above 100% by 2027.
- Growth is described as modest and driven mainly by household spending and PNRR‑funded public investment, with Italy placed near the bottom of the EU growth rankings through 2027.
- Inflation is projected at 1.7% for Italy in 2025, compared with 2.1% in the euro area, with EU assessments of national budget plans due in the upcoming autumn package.