Overview
- The court’s September 2026 analysis says the EU has made progress since 2022 but that the 2030 goal is unlikely without faster industrial scaling, stronger EU-level planning and much higher, sustained spending.
- EU defence spending rose about 79 percent from 2020 to 2025, which helped rebuild stocks but has put heavy pressure on national budgets and increased reliance on debt, including a €90 billion loan for Ukraine that earmarks roughly €60 billion for defence.
- The report highlights Europe’s supply dependence, noting that between February 2022 and June 2023 about 78 percent of member states’ purchases came from non-EU suppliers and 63 percent from the United States.
- Fragmented national procurement remains a core problem: joint buys were low (roughly 18 percent in 2021), coordination is weak, and high-profile projects such as the proposed Franco‑German fighter collapsed over control disputes.
- To close gaps the auditors say member states must speed up ammunition production, adopt a top‑down EU planning process, and use coordinated industrial policy to expand capacity, otherwise voters will face higher borrowing costs and persistent capability shortfalls.