Overview
- Global bank J.P. Morgan cut its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.7% to 1.5% after weak activity data, reflecting a large monthly contraction in official activity figures and raising the risk of a Q3 downturn.
- Household financial stress remains high: consultancy 1816 reported delinquency at 12.8% in August and more than ARS 2.7 trillion in refinanced consumer debt, with banks pursuing broad restructurings.
- Opposition blocs in the Chamber of Deputies have summoned a special session for October 15 to push to repeal DNU 70/2023 and to debate extensions for disability emergency measures and debt‑relief proposals.
- The ruling party, La Libertad Avanza, has already scaled back elements of its congressional agenda and is preparing legislative tweaks on land sales, disability policy and morosity rules to blunt opposition moves.
- Government efforts to sell large projects and incentives — including RIGI approvals and promotion of Vaca Muerta at Argentina Week — face a cautious private sector as exporters and domestic firms diverge in performance and risk premiums stay elevated.