Overview
- The market staged an early‑July rebound that recovered about 11–14% from late‑June lows and triggered more than $300 million in liquidations while US spot ETFs returned to modest net inflows.
- Spot ETF flows on July 6 recorded a notable one‑day inflow of roughly $29 million, which added buying pressure but has so far been uneven compared with prior outflow periods.
- On‑chain data show exchange net position change turned positive and Binance reserves rose to about 3.89 million ETH, signals that more ETH is available on exchanges and could translate into selling pressure.
- Derivatives metrics tell a different story because open interest and estimated leverage remain well below their October 2025 peaks, so the rally is not driven by heavy borrowed money and momentum is fragile.
- Longer‑term market structure matters: staking now locks over 30% of ETH supply and there is more than $150 billion of on‑chain stablecoin liquidity that could provide real buying, but many holders near the $1,800 cost basis may sell into strength so renewed spot demand or stabilizing reserves will be needed to extend gains.