Overview

• The Estonian Defence Forces released a map showing three Russian MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace near Vaindloo island for about 12 minutes with transponders off and no filed flight plans.
• Russia’s Defence Ministry denied any violation, asserting the aircraft followed a planned route from Karelia to Kaliningrad over neutral waters.
• Estonia requested consultations under NATO’s Article 4, and Secretary General Mark Rutte contacted Tallinn to discuss the incident as NATO and EU officials issued public condemnations.
• The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia is intentionally testing allied detection and political resolve, citing the Estonian breach and a reported low pass by two Russian fighters over Poland’s Petrobaltic platform within Poland’s exclusive economic zone.
• Czech President Petr Pavel called the behavior a serious escalation and warned that airspace violations could warrant defensive measures up to destroying the intruder, while Estonia’s foreign minister noted this was the fourth such breach this year.