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ESPN Projection Puts Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts on Pace to Challenge Emmitt Smith’s Rushing TD Record

The projection hinges on sustained goal-line usage plus the uncertain future of the push sneak.

Overview

  • Allen holds the quarterback rushing touchdown mark with 77, while Hurts is third at 63 as they head into a Week 17 matchup.
  • ESPN’s analysis projects both could surpass Emmitt Smith’s 164 rushing touchdowns early in 2034 if current trends in usage and health persist.
  • The push sneak fuels much of Hurts’ short-yardage scoring, with 36 such touchdowns since 2022, and the Eagles have run the play 148 times to the Bills’ 79.
  • Allen’s short-yardage impact has grown, averaging 13 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons, and he has not missed game time for injury since his rookie year.
  • Hurts is pacing for career lows in rushing attempts and yards this season and has noted the push sneak is getting harder to execute as defenses adjust.