ESPN Predictor Tilts Toward Iowa Over Penn State Ahead of Oct. 18 Game at Kinnick Stadium

Penn State's outlook has sagged, following a three-game slide capped by Drew Allar's season-ending injury.

Overview

ESPN's updated matchup model now leans to Iowa, with recent posts placing Penn State below a 50% win probability for the road matchup.
The forecast has dropped from a 61.5% Penn State chance before Oct. 11 to the high-40s in new updates, signaling a marked downgrade.
Penn State removed head coach James Franklin on Sunday, and Terry Smith will make his head-coaching debut in Iowa City.
Quarterback Drew Allar has been ruled out for the season, and Ethan Grunkemeyer will start for the Nittany Lions this week.
ESPN's broader projections suggest Penn State faces a tougher path to bowl eligibility as odds have trended down across the remaining schedule.