Overview
- Researchers at ESA’s Darmstadt control center simulated a Carrington‑level event that produced immediate radiation impacts within minutes and a destructive plasma strike about 15 hours later.
- ESA officials warned that an eruption of this magnitude could damage or destroy spacecraft across orbits, with no satellite guaranteed to remain unscathed.
- Independent modeling by Lloyd’s and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies projects average global economic losses of about $2.4 trillion over five years, with scenarios ranging from $1.2 trillion to $9.1 trillion.
- Analyses highlight vulnerabilities in high‑voltage transformers and power grids, as well as disruptions to satellites, GPS timing, communications and radar, with potential cascading effects across transport, health services and supply chains.
- Preparedness recommendations include backup power, surge protection, data backups, robust cybersecurity and crisis planning, complemented by enhanced monitoring through ESA’s planned Vigil 2031 mission and new NASA space‑weather missions.