Overview

• July’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI climbed 3.1%, broadly matching forecasts and reinforcing easing expectations
• CME FedWatch Tool shows probabilities for a September rate cut jumping into the mid-to-high 90s percent after the CPI report
• U.S. stocks rallied with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new intraday and closing records as Treasury yields fell
• President Trump extended the U.S.-China tariff truce by 90 days, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent endorsed the Nvidia/AMD licensing model—requiring 15% of select China chip revenues to flow to the U.S. Treasury—as a potential framework for other sectors
• Traders are now focused on upcoming U.S. producer price index and jobless-claims data, Australia’s labour figures and the Trump–Putin summit for clues on the policy outlook