Overview

• Nine of the ten councils with the largest recent drops are in London, with Westminster down 15.9% since 2020–21 and Southwark reporting a fall of more than 12%.
• EPI reports 23 primary school closures across the ten worst‑hit councils since 2020–21, including closures in Westminster, Southwark, Hackney and Islington.
• By 2028–29, primary rolls are projected to be about 30% lower in Islington and Lambeth than a decade earlier, with many other London boroughs forecast to decline by over 20%.
• The downturn is not explained by birthrates alone, with more pupils leaving London between reception and year six and factors such as emigration, cost pressures and shifts to independent or home education cited.
• England has 150,000 fewer primary pupils than in 2019 and EPI projects around 400,000 fewer school pupils nationwide by the end of the decade, as some eastern areas grow and London contracts.