Overview
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted prediction-market odds showing JD Vance at roughly 48% to win the 2028 Republican nomination, with Marco Rubio near 12% and no other contender above about 5%.
- Enten cited an early University of New Hampshire Granite State Poll placing Vance at 51% among likely GOP primary voters, a 42-point lead over Nikki Haley at 9% with Tulsi Gabbard at 8%.
- Reviewing archival surveys back to 1980, Enten said Vance is the only non-incumbent to register above 50% in early New Hampshire Republican primary polling.
- Enten argued that strong New Hampshire positioning often correlates with securing the GOP nomination, framing Vance as the clear early favorite even before formal announcements.
- Coverage notes the race remains undeclared and fluid, as some conservative groups are reportedly beginning grassroots organizing for Vance in early states such as Iowa.