Overview
- Marquette University Law School polling shows Democrats up five points on the generic congressional ballot among all voters.
- Among respondents certain to vote, the same poll puts Democrats ahead by about nine points, indicating stronger turnout intent.
- Harry Enten notes this pattern breaks with early midterm history in which Republicans typically reported higher certainty to vote.
- Recent contests in New Jersey and Virginia ran ahead of polling for Democrats by roughly eight and five points, respectively.
- Enten argues current registered-voter surveys may be understating Democratic strength and says the outlook would be significant for 2026 if these trends persist.