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England's Local Elections Signal Conservative Decline and Rising Populist Right

Labour holds steady as Reform UK gains traction, with internal Tory divisions over alliances adding to party woes.

El líder de Reform UK, Nigel Farage, con una maqueta de un tanque británico durante un acto de campaña este martes en Scunthorpe.
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Overview

  • Thursday's local elections in England mark the first significant electoral test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer since Labour's general election victory in July 2024.
  • Polls predict significant losses for the Conservative Party, with Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, poised to make substantial gains and challenge the two-party dominance.
  • Labour has shifted rightward on immigration policy, with Starmer advancing a border security bill that includes stripping refugee status from sexual offenders.
  • A leaked proposal by Conservative MP Robert Jenrick advocating a potential alliance with Reform UK has deepened internal divisions within the party.
  • The elections highlight growing multiparty fragmentation in UK politics, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens also expected to make modest gains.