Overview
- Economists including Investec expect July’s RPI at roughly 4.5–4.6%, which under last year’s approach would imply regulated fare increases of about 5.5–5.6% in 2026.
- The Department for Transport says no decision has been made on next year’s fares, promising an update later this year and stressing a balance between passengers and taxpayers.
- Regulated tickets cover about 45% of fares, including most season tickets, some long‑distance off‑peak returns and flexible urban fares, and unregulated prices typically move in line.
- Campaign groups Railfuture and Campaign for Better Transport call the projected rise a rip‑off and urge a freeze or wider reform as Great British Railways plans move forward.
- The July inflation reading that typically guides fare caps is due Wednesday, after regulated fares rose 4.6% in March, one percentage point above July 2024’s RPI.