England and Wales Prison Population Projected to Exceed 100,000 by 2029

Rising prosecutions, longer sentences, and delays in prison expansion drive concerns over overcrowding and capacity shortfalls.

The Ministry of Justice projects the prison population in England and Wales could reach 100,800 by March 2029, with a range between 95,700 and 105,200 inmates.
Current prison capacity is nearly maxed out, with 86,059 inmates against an operational limit of 88,852, leaving just 2,793 spaces available.
Factors contributing to the rise include increased prosecutions, higher remand numbers, and sentencing reforms keeping serious offenders incarcerated longer.
Efforts to expand prison capacity are significantly delayed, with a projected shortfall of 12,400 spaces by 2027 and costs exceeding initial estimates by £4.2 billion.
Temporary measures, such as reducing time served for certain sentences, have been implemented but are unlikely to prevent critical overcrowding by July 2025.