Overview
- U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and President Donald Trump said the United States would run Venezuela and invite American oil majors to invest billions, with the oil embargo remaining in place for now.
- Venezuela holds roughly 303 billion barrels of proven reserves, yet production has collapsed to about 1.1 million barrels per day after years of mismanagement, nationalizations and sanctions.
- Chevron is the only major U.S. producer still operating through PDVSA joint ventures and is viewed as best positioned to scale, while ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips are monitoring developments and pursuing arbitration claims estimated near $2 billion and about $10 billion, respectively.
- Industry experts and banks say restoring output at scale will require clear legal frameworks, security and sanctions relief, with estimates ranging from about $100 billion over a decade to nearly $190 billion for higher targets, and international law scholars warn of ownership limits on an occupying power.
- Shares of producers, refiners and oilfield-service firms jumped on Monday—Chevron rose about 4%–5%, refiners like Valero and Marathon gained roughly 5%–10%, and services names climbed 5%–8%—while crude edged up around 1% as analysts projected limited near-term price impact in a well-supplied market.