Overview

• The price of oil jumped to $77 per barrel on June 20, up from $63 in May; European gas climbed to €40 per megawatt hour.
• Italy’s factory output rose 1% in April, kicking off Q2 after a 0.4% gain in Q1; production levels remain below those of 2022 and early 2023.
• Following a 1.6% investment surge across construction, machinery and research in Q1, Confindustria projects a slowdown in capital spending for Q2.
• Italian consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month in May, presaging a pullback in retail sales and auto registrations.
• A strengthening euro may support European Central Bank rate cuts, whereas the dollar’s depreciation could stall U.S. interest rate reductions.