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Emissions Drop as Renewables Top 40%, Projections Warn Australia Risks Missing 2030–35 Targets

New projections tabled in parliament forecast only a 48% cut by 2035.

Overview

  • Official data show national emissions fell 2.2% in the year to June 2025, with electricity-sector pollution down 3.3% as renewables supplied more than 40% of power, leaving totals 28.5% below 2005 levels.
  • The government’s projections indicate a 42% reduction by 2030 against the 43% target and about 48% by 2035 versus the 62–70% goal.
  • Transport emissions rose 0.3% due to higher diesel use and increased domestic aviation activity, highlighting lagging progress outside the power sector.
  • The government credits the safeguard mechanism, renewable underwriting and home battery subsidies for recent gains, while the Climate Change Authority says the pace must accelerate; Labor and the Greens struck a deal to pass environment law reforms.
  • The released reports exclude emissions from Australia’s exported coal and gas, and preliminary figures point to a continued decline into September with a 2.8% fall over the year.