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Emerson Poll Shows Fragmented California Governor’s Race, With Republicans Competitive and Swalwell Rising

Two Republicans match the leading Democrats, reflecting heavy vote-splitting under the top-two system.

Overview

  • Emerson College/Inside California Politics survey (Dec. 1–2; n=1,000; ±3) reports Chad Bianco at 13%, Steve Hilton 12%, Eric Swalwell 12%, Katie Porter 11%, and 31% undecided.
  • Upon entering the race, Eric Swalwell split Democratic support with Katie Porter in the party subset, 20% to 17%, indicating a reshaped intra-party contest.
  • Katie Porter’s standing has slipped from earlier polling, with multiple outlets linking the decline to viral videos and concerns about her temperament.
  • Name recognition remains modest: Porter registers 30% favorable and 34% unfavorable with 37% unsure, while Swalwell posts 24% favorable, 23% unfavorable, and 53% unsure.
  • Gavin Newsom’s job approval registers at 47% (+8 net, his best in Emerson polling this year), and voters are evenly divided on whether his endorsement helps, hurts, or makes no difference (33%/33%/35%).