Overview
- An Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey of 1,000 very likely voters taken Oct. 25–28 shows Mikie Sherrill at 49% and Jack Ciattarelli at 48%, within the ±3 point margin of error.
- When leaners are included, Sherrill edges to 50% versus 48% for Ciattarelli, with just about 2% undecided.
- The poll reports a pronounced split by gender, with men favoring Ciattarelli by 16 points and women backing Sherrill by 18 points; the economy ranks as the top issue for 52% of voters.
- Early voting data compiled by Michael Pruser shows ballots cast so far are 54% Democratic and 28% Republican, heightening the stakes for Election Day turnout.
- Other late polls diverge, with Suffolk showing Sherrill +4 and Quinnipiac indicating a larger lead, as record spending and national surrogates—including President Donald Trump for Ciattarelli and Barack Obama set to rally for Sherrill—underscore the race’s broader significance.