Overview
- A new Ember analysis projects coal plant load factors falling from about 69% in FY2024–25 to roughly 55% in FY2031–32 as coal shifts to a flexible balancing role.
- Lower utilisation and heavier cycling would raise coal power costs, with Rs 6/kWh effectively increasing to about Rs 7.25/kWh for DISCOMs in the model.
- If NEP 2032 renewable and storage targets are met, 10% of additional coal units could go entirely unused by FY2031–32 and nearly a quarter of the fleet could be heavily underutilised.
- Recent bids indicate coal tariffs above Rs 6/kWh in Bihar and around Rs 5.85/kWh in Madhya Pradesh, while firm renewables are quoted near Rs 4.3–5.8/kWh and solar‑plus‑storage has reached about Rs 2.9–3.6/kWh.
- Ember urges faster storage deployment, thermal flexibility retrofits, and stronger dispatch and reserve rules, noting the power ministry still prioritizes thermal additions for energy security with 217 GW installed and a sizable pipeline.