Overview

• An official decree published in the Journal Officiel convenes Parliament in extraordinary session on 8 September for a policy declaration under Article 49.1 that requires more votes in favor than against.
• François Bayrou defends roughly €44 billion in 2026 savings that include a debated freeze on revaluations, the scrapping of two public holidays, changes to retirees’ tax relief, and limited new levies on top earners.
• Bayrou will receive party leaders from 1 September after addressing the Medef, with the RN agreeing to attend without negotiating and LFI refusing the invitation; the PS prepares a counter‑budget focused on new revenues.
• Political uncertainty has weighed on markets, with France’s 10‑year borrowing rate rising to about 3.50% after the confidence‑vote announcement and the Paris market retreating.
• The likely defeat puts the autumn budget calendar at risk, with the government’s plan to transmit finance bills in early October now uncertain and business leaders warning that instability hurts investment.