Overview

• A GrayHouse poll places Rep. Elise Stefanik at 44% support in a hypothetical Republican primary, far ahead of Rep. Mike Lawler (7%) and Bruce Blakeman (5%).
• Stefanik holds a net favorability of +47 among Republican voters and maintains strong recognition statewide, including positive favorability among Independents.
• In a head-to-head matchup, Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Stefanik by just six points (46%-40%), signaling a competitive general election in the typically Democratic state.
• Gov. Hochul faces significant voter dissatisfaction, with 61% of respondents indicating they prefer new leadership, and her net job approval rating at -18.
• New York GOP leaders plan to consolidate support behind a single candidate through a convention-based nomination process to avoid a divisive primary.