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Eli Lilly Trades at a High Multiple as GLP‑1 Catalysts Loom

Near‑term regulatory decisions and launch results will determine whether investors’ big growth bet on the company is justified.

Overview

  • The stock has risen about 7% year to date despite earlier multi‑year gains, and investors are closely watching whether recent momentum can continue.
  • GLP‑1 drugs are the engine of Lilly’s growth, with companywide sales up 56% in Q1 driven by tirzepatide sold as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss.
  • Mounjaro sales jumped about 125% in Q1 and Zepbound sales rose about 80%, showing strong demand but also that much of that growth is already priced in.
  • Lilly reported positive phase 3 data for retatrutide that showed substantial weight loss and said it plans to submit a Biologics License Application early next year.
  • The stock trades at roughly 34 times earnings, so upcoming items such as the Foundayo pill launch, quarterly results and regulatory steps could either justify that premium or prompt a sharp re‑rating that creates buying opportunities.