Overview

• The 2023 election law reform by the Ampel coalition eliminated overhang and compensation mandates and capped the Bundestag at 630 seats.
• Analysis shows the reform minimally impacted CDU representation, as 15 of its candidates lost direct mandates but entered through party lists.
• The CSU, operating only in Bavaria, lost three direct mandates without compensation, highlighting its unique disadvantage under the new system.
• Under the old law, the Bundestag would have grown to 633 seats based on the 2025 election results, or 705 seats if smaller parties like FDP and BSW had entered.
• The CDU and CSU continue to criticize the reform as undemocratic and are pushing for revisions, a stance likely to complicate coalition talks with the SPD.