Overview
- In New Jersey, polls show a tight governor’s race, but DecisionDeskHQ reports Democrats built an early voting turnout edge as Jack Ciattarelli leans on Trump’s 2024 gains with Hispanic and nonwhite working‑class voters.
- Virginia’s gubernatorial polling shows Abigail Spanberger with a consistent lead over Winsome Earle‑Sears, as analysts cite Trump’s low approval and the prolonged federal shutdown’s impact on a state heavy with federal workers.
- New York City’s mayoral contest features Zohran Mamdani with a substantial polling lead over Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent, after President Trump urged Republicans to back Cuomo rather than GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa.
- California’s Proposition 50 is polling ahead and, if approved, would replace the state’s independent map with a Newsom‑backed plan expected to create Democratic opportunities in up to five U.S. House districts.
- Republicans tout turnout‑driven upset scenarios, with Karl Rove pointing to New Jersey and strategists highlighting the Virginia attorney general race as competitive after damaging texts surfaced about Democratic nominee Jay Jones.