Overview
- Observations and multiple forecast models indicate the 2026 El Niño is already one of the strongest on record and is likely to grow before peaking in the coming months.
- Daily Niño 3.4 sea‑surface temperature anomalies passed the previous instrumental record in September and seasonal model ensembles commonly project a peak near four degrees Celsius.
- The event is already changing weather and marine conditions, slowing shipping through the Panama Canal, shifting fish migrations, and raising risks of drought, heat and bushfires into 2027.
- New modeling reported by researchers finds that ocean heat inertia could keep the tropical Pacific in a more El Niño‑like state for centuries, which would make extreme El Niño years more frequent unless emissions are cut sooner.
- Paleoclimate reconstructions from tree rings and corals suggest that if modelled peaks hold this year’s event could be the strongest in roughly a thousand years, and Niño 3.4 measures the east‑west Pacific temperature contrast that drives these impacts.