Overview
- Official seasonal forecasts and national agencies report a strengthening El Niño that is very likely to persist through the coming months and may intensify toward the end of the year, a trend highlighted in coverage published on September 2.
- A new paleoclimate study in Science shows ENSO variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific is about 36% greater than preindustrial levels, and authors link that amplification to human‑caused warming.
- Mexico’s water authority Conagua reported three simultaneous Pacific tropical cyclones — Hurricane Karina plus tropical storms Lowell and Marie — active early September and reinforcing regional rainfall patterns off the west coast.
- Impacts are already divergent: worsening drought in parts of Central America and severe fires in Indonesia sit alongside forecasts of above‑normal rains for large swaths of Argentina, creating risks to crops, river basins, public health and transport links.
- Researchers and agencies have rolled out tools and responses — including the AgroENSO decision platform from CONICET/INTA, UN support for drought‑hit Honduras, and calls for science‑driven local planning — to help farmers, utilities and companies manage shifting water and supply‑chain risks.