Overview
- NOAA confirmed on Aug. 3 that El Niño is strengthening and issued an El Niño Advisory with about an 81% chance of 'very strong' conditions for October–December 2026.
- Multiple operational models and agencies report an unusually fast rise in Niño region temperatures and some forecasts, including Australia’s ACCESS‑S run, project anomalies that could reach record or 'super' levels later in 2026.
- Signs of impact are already visible in 2026 as heatwaves and large wildfires have intensified in places like Canada and the eastern and central Pacific has seen higher cyclone activity while the Atlantic season shows suppression.
- Forecasters stress large uncertainty about exact peak timing and regional impacts and note a dataset change from ERSSTv5 to ERSSTv6 will alter historical rankings and how 'very strong' is measured.
- Officials and scientists urge early planning for water, health, food and emergency services because a very strong El Niño raises the odds of severe seasonal shifts and could push vulnerable ecosystems, such as parts of the Amazon, toward lasting damage.