El Niño Predicted to Bring Warmer, Wetter Winter Across the US

Expected strong El Niño could potentially be as powerful as past impactful events; droughts predicted to persist in northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Southwest through February 2024.

• El Niño is expected to induce warmer than average temperatures through the winter across the northern US, particularly in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and northern New England. Parts of the upper Midwest, California, and the South will also likely experience higher temperatures.
• Southern parts of the US, including Florida, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama, are predicted to have significantly wetter than normal conditions between December and February.
• Despite the increased precipitation in the South, ongoing drought conditions in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and parts of the Southwest are projected to persist from October through January, while droughts in parts of the South and lower Midwest may improve or disappear entirely.
• This year's El Niño event, the first in four years, has a 30% chance of being as strong as, or stronger than, the impactful El Niños of the 1997-98 and 2015-16 winters.
• Climate change is an unpredictable factor that may impact established weather patterns. The summer of 2023 was exceptionally hot due to El Niño and global warming, and some forecasters foresee another hot summer for 2024.

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